|DRAM Half-pitch (nm)||250||180||165||150||130||120||110||100||70||50||35|
This is represented in the two graphs shown. The graph above shows how half-pitch is expected to decrease over the next 15 years, while the graph below shows the same data in a log-plot fashion. The equation being represented is that the half-pitch for year T is e(227.774-0.111323T) nanometers.
An interesting point about this prediction is that until 1997, it was thought that optical technology, which is based on etching by deep ultra-violet light, would be unable to function beyond about 130nm. But improvements in lithography have changed this, and the 1999 Semiconductor Industry Association Technology Roadmap predicts it can be used till 70nm.
``The slow overall growth of the U.S. smart card market has been a frustrating experience for the leading developers of this technology.''
Thus said Sigi Eichinger of Orga, a leading smart card manufacturer, in the October 1999 issue of CardTechnology.com. His disappointment is understandable when one considers the predictions that had been made over the previous three years about how smart cards were going to be the next great cash cow. A glance at the following 1996 forecast confirms this:
However, the Smart Card market is still expected to grow dramatically in the next few years as the need for secure personal identification, particularly on the internet and other virtual spaces (like telecommunications), becomes acute.